Iraqi Dinar-US Exit-Bring Peace Or More Conflict

How Will The US Exit Affect The Iraqi Dinar?

Will Troop Withdrawal from Iraq Bring Peace or Greater Conflict?

By MIDDLE EAST TIMES
Published: April 07, 2009

Much has been said, and perhaps even more written, about the 'surge' that turned the tide of the war in Iraq in favor of the United States. That was when President George W. Bush decreed late into his second term that extra troops were needed to put a stop to the rising insurgency.
Additional troops arrived and the level of violence went down. Coincidence? Well, actually, yes. Extra combat troops in the country certainly gave the insurgency a harder time. But there was more to it than that.

Raymond Tanter, a professor at Georgetown University in Washington, and a former member of President Ronald Reagan's National Security Council, believes there are other reasons, too.
Tanter reports in a recently published white paper titled, "President Obama and Iraq, Towards a Responsible Troop Drawdown," that "The underlying assumption is that an increase of stability in Iraq allows troops to be withdrawn."

This is the false assumption, he said. Several experts on Iraq, including a former minister of defense, fear that a premature withdrawal of troops could prove disastrous for Iraq.
But let us return momentarily to the question of the surge and the false belief that it actually worked.

"The American military," writes Tanter, "credits the surge. The government of Iraq credits its security forces; Iraqi tribal chiefs credit their 'awakening' against al-Qaida and in favor of coalition forces."

Truth be told, we might never really be able to calculate what contributed the most to the increase of stability in Iraq, and the U.S. military can well claim some of the responsibility for a better, safer Iraq since the introduction of the surge. There is no question that the insurgents were quite reluctant to fight coalition troops once the reinforcements arrived. Just as there is no question that when the surge happened pro-al-Qaida fighters simply moved to other provinces where there were fewer U.S. troops.

And the government of Iraq certainly deserves some of the credit given the huge price in blood that they paid.

As for the tribal chiefs, they have switched their alliance from al-Qaida and Islamist fighters to supporting the government and the Americans, because it suits their cause and their bank accounts.

But all that may change again as rapidly as it did the first time. The U.S. military will eventually pull out, leaving the Iraqis master of their destiny. There is the 64,000 devalued dinar question: will the Sunni tribesmen who make up the 'awakening' movement remain loyal once the checks stop coming?

One indication on how things can go in Iraq was demonstrated by a meeting Tanter had a few months ago with a Sunni tribal leader, who caught sight of Tanter's lapel pin, a small American flag.

Tanter asked the tribal sheikh if he liked the U.S. flag.
"I do now," said the Iraqi.

"What would you have done before?" asked Tanter, referring to the time, only a few months earlier when the Sunni tribes were not on the U.S. payroll.

"I would have killed you," replied the Sunni tribesman without emotion in his voice.
The tribesmen were turned once, they could just as easily turn a second time.