Iraqi Dinar Buying Guide - Iraq: U.S. Forces Withdraw From Cities

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Iraq: U.S. Forces Withdraw From Cities

Iraqis celebrate the U.S. withdrawal from Iraqi cities on June 30 in Muhannad Fala'ah

SummaryU.S. forces withdrew from Iraqi cities June 30, turning security responsibilities over to Iraqi security forces. Some 130,000 U.S. troops will remain in Iraq, and some will remain at urban outposts to assist with security in cities if needed, but the coming weeks and months will be a test for Iraqi security forces seeking to maintain relative calm in the country.

AnalysisAfter more than six years of war, foreign occupation and civil strife in Iraq's attempt to rebuild itself as a nation, Iraqi security forces on June 30 celebrated the handing over of responsibility for security in the country's cities from U.S. forces. Only in the weeks and months ahead, however, will it become evident whether much has actually changed in the war-torn nation.Newspapers' front pages featured Iraqi security forces celebrating the June 30 deadline for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq's cities, but the U.S. military had been preparing for this moment for months by withdrawing or making preparations for withdrawal.

Still, some 130,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground in Iraq, and that troop level is not expected to change until at least September. This is roughly the same number of troops that was in Iraq three years ago, before the surge. Some are remaining at urban outposts beyond the deadline, while others are available to reinforce the cities if the security situation warrants - all at Baghdad's request, of course.But the Iraqi government and the United States are deeply concerned about sustaining security gains made since the surge.

And though Gen. Ray Odierno - the top U.S. military officer in Iraq - has expressed confidence in the Iraqi security forces despite a recent spate of deadly suicide bombings, these concerns are genuine. There are powerful near-term incentives for elements of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as al Qaeda in Iraq and other foreign jihadists remaining in Iraq, to carry out attacks at this time in order to call into question Iraqi security forces' capabilities and try to reignite the sectarian bloodshed of 2006.

A June 30 car bombing in Kirkuk that left more than 20 people dead as U.S. troops withdrew from the city served as a critical reminder of this threat.In the coming weeks and months, the world will first see whether the Iraqi security forces prove themselves capable of maintaining day-to-day security. This will take several forms. One is proficiency - the security forces' capability to adhere to basic doctrine, maintain security and execute tactical maneuvers. Another is their willingness to do so.

If the security forces can keep above the sectarian strife they were so embroiled in years ago and enforce security in a relatively even-handed, uncorrupt manner, they may be able to make a positive contribution to overall security, rather than fan the sectarian flames. But it is far from clear whether the key security organs have overcome their sectarian roots and issues.It then remains for Baghdad to wield these forces fairly and effectively.

Given the amount of sectarian tension that still colors debates over oil revenues, the integration of Sunni irregular forces into the security apparatus, the fate of Kirkuk and other issues, this cannot be taken for granted. And political attempts to capitalize on the passing of the deadline will only cloud matters further.This will all be happening as the United States begins to relinquish some of its responsibilities and freedom of action.

Trainers, advisers and even some combat forces will remain, and the stipulations of the Status of Forces Agreement likely will be loosely interpreted in favor of maintaining security. Nevertheless, day-to-day operations are shifting into Iraqi hands as the United States transitions from a tactical to a more operational and strategic overwatch.

In addition, the United States will be losing ground in terms of intelligence and situational awareness as it pulls back. Since the surge, U.S. forces have had sustained, day-in, day-out personal contact at the tactical level with the local populace. This contact has given U.S. forces significant intelligence and situational awareness - enough to act as a buffer between different sects. Some erosion of this intelligence capability is almost inevitable, and it may become significant.Overall, the United States wants out of Iraq - and Iraqis want the United States out. Both Baghdad and Washington are invested in making this work. Washington's challenge is that its forces are stretched thin; it is already delaying the Afghan surge in order to keep sufficient troops in Iraq to keep a lid on security should tensions flare up again.

But the United States must move quickly to reduce its commitment in Iraq in order to free itself up not only for the campaign in Afghanistan, but also for dealing with emerging challenges in Iran and across the Russian periphery.The real question underlying this range of issues is whether Iraq can function as a federal entity. It struggled to do so in the years before the surge and descended into chaos. The surge of U.S. forces was decisive in re-establishing security. What matters is not the change that happened June 30; the official withdrawal from Iraq's cities was symbolic. What matters is whether Baghdad's governance and security forces can maintain security and gain the confidence of Iraq's people, across the sectarian spectrum, in ways that truly make the security situation manageable for the long term.